Althouse: "North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump are among the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize..."

April 27, 2018

"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump are among the main contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize..."

"... that is, if you believe the odds set by UK betting giant Coral... Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are the odds-on favorites at 4/6, followed by Trump at 10/1."

130 comments:

Nonapod said...: I'm pretty sure Trump could unequivocally bring about world peace itself, be responsible for everyone on the planet coming together, holding hands across the globe all singing "Kumbaya", lions laying down with lambs, and they'd still never give him a Nobel Peace Prize.; 4/27/18, 2:40 PM
wildswan said...: I hope peace has come. It seems almost too much to believe. But if it has come it is due to Donald Trump - no question. The three might share the prize.; 4/27/18, 2:41 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: More important than the Peace prize is the peace. Communist North Korea is a literal Hell-Hole on earth. Anything that liberalizes it, opens it up, moves it out of the dark ages is a good thing.; 4/27/18, 2:43 PM
OGWiseman said...: I already started thinking the Nobel Peace Prize was a joke when they gave it to Obama just for getting elected--and I voted for the man--when they knew (or damn well should have) that he was going to preside over many thousands of deaths and order thousands of bombs dropped.

If they give it to KJU, who starves his own people and holds 11 million S. Koreans hostage, or to Donald Trump, who has advocated killing the families of our enemies and whose administration has killed more civilians just so far than Obama did in eight, well... what a world we're living in these days. Black really is white, up really is down, and Peace apparently means Killing.; 4/27/18, 2:44 PM
Achilles said...: I cannot wait for the Nobel committee to give the nobel prize to everyone but Trump.

They have been a joke since they gave the award to Obama right before he started a half dozen wars in the middle east and turned the whole region into a dumpster fire.; 4/27/18, 2:46 PM
Leland said...: I don't believe the odds, because the Nobel Peace Prize is a political matter. Might a prize be given for peace in Korea? I think definitely so, but it will be given only to the leaders of North and South Korea, so as to snub Trump.; 4/27/18, 2:47 PM
Nonapod said...: They have been a joke since they gave the award to Obama

To be fair, they've been a joke at least since they gave it to Yasser Arafat.; 4/27/18, 2:49 PM
YoungHegelian said...: @OGWiseman,

[The Trump administration] administration has killed more civilians just so far than Obama did in eight...

Uhhhm, what?

What are you talking about?; 4/27/18, 2:54 PM
MountainMan said...: I agree with Leland. No way would the committee ever give it to Trump.; 4/27/18, 2:55 PM
buwaya said...: "whose administration has killed more civilians just so far "

Where?

" Peace apparently means Killing."

It usually does. Sad but true.; 4/27/18, 2:56 PM
Ignorance is Bliss said...: I see what you did there. Nice choice of links for a pro-Trump story.; 4/27/18, 2:57 PM
rcocean said...: They gave the award to Obama for doing nothing. They will never give Trump the award for doing anything.

Stop taking the Nobel Prize seriously (except for Science)

They gave the Literature Prize to Dylan, Harold Pinter, and Pearl Buck. They gave the Peace prize to Theodore Roosevelt, Gorbachev, and Yassir Arafat.

How they missed Stalin and Hitler for the 1939 Non-aggression pact is unknown.; 4/27/18, 2:59 PM
Etienne said...: Logic would seem to prevent Sweden from giving a million dollars to a murderous dictator, and an interloper of the Clinton dynasty.

But then, having given a million dollars to both Obama and Dylan, we can't say logic plays a primary role in the selection.; 4/27/18, 2:59 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/27/18, 3:00 PM
MountainMan said...: Odd that you have a tag for Sun Myung Moon, who was a religious leader, deceased since 2012. The president of South Korea is Moon Jae-In.; 4/27/18, 3:01 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: North Korean leader eligible for a peace prize?

Please explain that to the starving orphans who huddle together in desperation on the streets in paradise NoKo. Or to the thousands of innocent families imprisoned for seeking truth about the outside world, or God forbid, going against Dear Leader in any way.

Can we get back to giving out peace prizes to leftwingers like Saint Obama. His mere existence is reason enough for a peace prize.

Is this another stunt by the ass-hack-immoral left to equate Trump and Nazi Kim? of course it is. Leftists don't give a damn about the suffering in NoKo.; 4/27/18, 3:02 PM
rcocean said...: They gave Woodrow Wilson a "Peace Prize" getting us into WW 1 and the Treaty of Versailles.

50,000 dead American soldiers could not be reached for comment.; 4/27/18, 3:02 PM
rcocean said...: BTW, lets be sure this isn't a NK scam before we start handing out prizes.; 4/27/18, 3:03 PM
Rae said...: Trump will never win the Peace Prize. It's not about peace.; 4/27/18, 3:05 PM
Big Mike said...: I'd almost rather the committee not give the Peace Prize to Trump. Then we can contrast the committee giving it to a man who personally chose targets to bomb using drones versus a man who actually created movement towards peace.; 4/27/18, 3:06 PM
tim maguire said...: I can understand why Kim would get one--he's a mass murdering psychopath. He whacked his own brother.

But Trump? He's not a cold blooded killer like Kim. He's not a celebrated do nothing like Obama. He has accomplishments. He dreams big, acts big, acheives big. Why woud they give the prize to someone like that?; 4/27/18, 3:08 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: "They gave Woodrow Wilson a "Peace Prize" getting us into WW 1 and the Treaty of Versailles."

Another atrocious, utopian Democrat President. What an epic fucking disaster. In and of itself, WWI was horrible, but then it sowed the seeds for WWII, which sowed the seeds for the Cold War.; 4/27/18, 3:08 PM
Jim at said...: and whose administration has killed more civilians just so far than Obama did in eight,

Good lord. Trump's Administration has killed more civilians than Obama did in eight?

What in the hell is wrong with you people?
Are you clinically insane? Is that it?; 4/27/18, 3:19 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Nonapod:

I'm pretty sure Trump could unequivocally bring about world peace itself, be responsible for everyone on the planet coming together, holding hands across the globe all singing "Kumbaya", lions laying down with lambs, and they'd still never give him a Nobel Peace Prize.

Perhaps, but who cares? The Nobel Peace Prize is a party favor handed out by the globalist establishment. Utterly meaningless.

Bay Area Guy:

Another atrocious, utopian Democrat President. What an epic fucking disaster. In and of itself, WWI was horrible, but then it sowed the seeds for WWII, which sowed the seeds for the Cold War.

And it is surely a crime that our entire foreign policy establishment is wedded to the "liberal internationalism" of Woodrow Wilson, or should I say, Colonel House. Wilson was largely a puppet whose intellectual strings were plucked quite assiduously by Edward Mandell House until their falling out in Paris in 1919.; 4/27/18, 3:20 PM
Achilles said...: Big Mike said...

I'd almost rather the committee not give the Peace Prize to Trump. Then we can contrast the committee giving it to a man who personally chose targets to bomb using drones versus a man who actually created movement towards peace.

Before or after he gets impeached for "collusion" with russians to pay a porn star not to talk about sex?; 4/27/18, 3:20 PM
Drago said...: I'll be satisfied if the dems/LLR's don't call for Trump's impeachment for colluding with North Korea.; 4/27/18, 3:21 PM
Hagar said...: If his is real and something comes of it, a Nobel Peace Prize would seem to be in order and the two Korean presidents would be the logical recipients.
If they cut in Trump they would also have to include Xi, who probably has as much, or more, to do with arranging this as Trump.; 4/27/18, 3:23 PM
gadfly said...: I think it is time to rename the Nobel prize as something other than accomplishing anything related to peace. Fact is that humans will be at war someplace on this earth at any given time.

BSers like Obama get the prize for doing nothing and if the Korean presidents or our unqualified president are even nominated, perhaps we could counter with the Roadrunner and Wile E Coyote who know longer go at one another.; 4/27/18, 3:26 PM
Sebastian said...: If they can give O a prize for nothing, surely they can give it to a dictator who runs concentration camps.; 4/27/18, 3:27 PM
Hagar said...: But I think Xi and Trump may well choose to just smile benevolently and express how happy they are that Kim and Moon were able to resolve the conflict on their own.

If there indeed is anything like a resolution.
The US and Japan will insist on an actual de-nuclearization.; 4/27/18, 3:32 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: I would guess that it will be a cold day in hell before Kim Jong-un gets a Nobel Prize or gives up his nukes. But, let's hope I am wrong, at least on the second possibility.; 4/27/18, 3:37 PM
Yancey Ward said...: The committee would retroactively award Hitler the prize before they gave one to Trump. The odds of Trump winning even if the Koreas make a real peace deal is about a quadrillion to one.; 4/27/18, 3:38 PM
WisRich said...: I hope Trump is not seduced by the idea of getting a Nobel prize. I think the MSM are trying to lure him into making a deal even if it's not a good deal.

Don't fall for Donny Two Scoops. Keep up that Dragon Energy. No Nuke Kim.; 4/27/18, 3:40 PM
Achilles said...: WisRich said...

I hope Trump is not seduced by the idea of getting a Nobel prize. I think the MSM are trying to lure him into making a deal even if it's not a good deal.

Don't fall for Donny Two Scoops. Keep up that Dragon Energy. No Nuke Kim.

You have to look at what really happened here.

The Norks, or a tungsten rod from heaven, collapsed the mountain they were using for nuclear testing. The mountain underwent a significant reduction in height and now sits open, probably leaking radiation.

Right on the Chinese border.

There is also a large active volcano near there. The Chinese did not want South Korea to have nukes and that was the only logical endpoint if the North kept going.

China will accept a non-nuclear Korean peninsula and be happy to let the South rebuild the north.; 4/27/18, 3:52 PM
tim in vermont said...: whose administration has killed more civilians just so far than Obama did in eight

This kind of rigid thinking and slavish adherence to confirmation bias indicates that a trip to a qualified therapist may be in order.; 4/27/18, 3:52 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Achilles:

China will accept a non-nuclear Korean peninsula and be happy to let the South rebuild the north.

Does that include withdraw of US troops from the peninsula and an end to the US-ROK mutual defense pact?; 4/27/18, 4:06 PM
WisRich said...: Achilles said...
You have to look at what really happened here.

The Norks, or a tungsten rod from heaven, collapsed the mountain they were using for nuclear testing. The mountain underwent a significant reduction in height and now sits open, probably leaking radiation.

Right on the Chinese border.

There is also a large active volcano near there. The Chinese did not want South Korea to have nukes and that was the only logical endpoint if the North kept going.

China will accept a non-nuclear Korean peninsula and be happy to let the South rebuild the north.

4/27/18, 3:52 PM
--

From your lips to God's ear I pray.; 4/27/18, 4:10 PM
FullMoon said...: tim maguire said... [hush][hide comment]

I can understand why Kim would get one--he's a mass murdering psychopath. He whacked his own brother.

Giving it to Kim a great idea. The guy has backed down from Donald Trump. Getting a trophy for doing it would help save face and give his followers good reason to applaud him. Especially after NK govt puts their spin on how Kim out maneuvered the evil USA.

Trump would not mind because he knows it is meaningless, especially after Obama.; 4/27/18, 4:11 PM
Rabel said...: My only thought about the Peace Prize is that if they give it to Trump he should send General Mattis over to accept it.; 4/27/18, 4:20 PM
Lyle Smith said...: It probably benefits Trump if he doesn’t get it.; 4/27/18, 4:22 PM
Rob said...: I can see the headlines now:
TRUMP AWARDED NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
New Yorker Editors Commit Mass Suicide; 4/27/18, 4:28 PM
chickelit said...: Fritz Haber won the 1918 Chemistry Nobel. The committee overlooked his role in developing Germany’s gas warfare program.; 4/27/18, 4:29 PM
J. Farmer said...: @FullMoon:

The guy has backed down from Donald Trump. Getting a trophy for doing it would help save face and give his followers good reason to applaud him.

This is an extremely Americancentric view of the events. Look at the South Korean coverage of the events and tell me if you think Kim Jung-un is desperate for a means to "save face" in that situation. Kim is being treated like a major international player, even though he is the head of a state that has about half the GDP of Vermont. They have systemically been trying to triangulate by moving closer to the South and hoping to force a wedge with the US. This occurred in the Olympics. This occurred with the delay in joint US-ROK military drills, which was widely seen as a concession to the North in efforts to de-esclate. If the US objects to terms that are more amenable to the South, that will further drive a wedge. Plus, Kim will likely soon have a direct meeting with the US president. Attention from and being taken seriously by leaders in the West has been a perennial obsession of the Kim dynasty.; 4/27/18, 4:29 PM
stevew said...: I love the sound of leftist and #nevertrump heads exploding in the afternoon.

-sw; 4/27/18, 4:32 PM
Kevin said...: If the US objects to terms that are more amenable to the South, that will further drive a wedge.

The South Koreans cannot afford to accept terms not amenable to the US. Even if the NORKS were to completely unarm, they need US security guarantees to make sure China doesn't push them around.

The South Koreans are not going to trade their relationship with the US for one with Kim.; 4/27/18, 4:44 PM
Achilles said...: J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

China will accept a non-nuclear Korean peninsula and be happy to let the South rebuild the north.

Does that include withdraw of US troops from the peninsula and an end to the US-ROK mutual defense pact?

I don't think it will happen. I know Japan would not allow it to happen. Philippines would lose it's shit. I am not sure if they can go nuclear now or not. Japan would turn the knob and have nukes within the week.

The biggest loser would be Taiwan. I am curious as to what their nuclear program looks like.

I am not sure if Trump would go for it. He has made the US unpredictable again which is good for us but...

I think China will play the long game and watch the South flounder trying to deal with the humanitarian crisis China created. The North will push heavily for socialism which will core the south economy out.

The Chicoms are seriously pissed and worried about the collapsed nuclear volcano Un created on their border. That little play failed.; 4/27/18, 4:46 PM
TWW said...: This is just going to kill the NYT. I love it.; 4/27/18, 4:48 PM
Big Mike said...: This is an extremely Americancentric view of the events.

That's okay. We're Americans; we can do that.; 4/27/18, 4:49 PM
PM said...: If Trump wins, he should have Dylan pick it up for him.; 4/27/18, 4:50 PM
madAsHell said...: Trump should turn down the Nobel Peace Prize. Dismiss the award with a I'm-not-done-yet statement, and watch the heads explode!!; 4/27/18, 4:52 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Kevin:

The South Koreans are not going to trade their relationship with the US for one with Kim.

It is not an either/or situation. Even if the ROK walks away from the negotiating table out of deference to the US, if it leaves begrudgingly and believing that the US is being unreasonable, then it will indeed drive a wedge between the relationship. If you couple that with the fact that the younger generation of South Koreans is much less reflexively pro-American than the older generation. For example, Mark Lippert was attacked with a knife in South Korea, and even though he was a relatively popular ambassador whose dog had gained some degree of social media celebrity in South Korea, the South Korean government's outpouring was widely mocked by typical South Koreans as ridiculously over-the-top and deferential in a way that made them feel a bit embarrassed. It is not an unexpected reaction. Koreans are highly nationalist and proud people.; 4/27/18, 4:53 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Big Mike:

That's okay. We're Americans; we can do that.

You certainly can, but you shouldn't expect to understand the bigger picture by focusing exclusively on one of many variables.; 4/27/18, 4:55 PM
steve uhr said...: How can you give a peace prize to a monster like Kim? Right out of 1984.; 4/27/18, 4:56 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Achilles:

Japan would turn the knob and have nukes within the week.

I am not so sure about that. There is deep cultural opposition to developing nuclear weapons. Also, it does not follow that because we choose to withdraw from one defense pact, all other defense pacts would be null and void. From your point of view, the US could never remove itself from any defense pact. We do not offer defense pacts to every country in the world. It's perfectly reasonable for us to choose when to get into them and when to get out of them as our interests demand.

But, imagine for a second that the US had no pact with South Korea or with Japan or had any forces stationed there. I honestly do not understand how you think the relationship with China would significantly change. I doubt you believe that China would launch some kind of military invasion of these countries. So barring that, what do you believe that china could do to Japan that it is not doing now, and how does a mutual defense pact prevent them from doing that?; 4/27/18, 5:01 PM
steve uhr said...: We know that a Deal will be reached and it will be the best deal ever. of couse if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever.; 4/27/18, 5:05 PM
Jim at said...: Try harder, Steve.; 4/27/18, 5:08 PM
langford peel said...: The God Emperor will never receive his due from the elitist scum who control awards and accolades. The Media will downplay or just omit his contributions that lead directly to this sea change in the history of Korea.

His only solace is that his photo will be in a place of honor in many Korean households as they honor him for what he has done. Much like Reagan who was ridiculed by the elites and worshiped by the peons of Eastern Europe who he freed from tyranny.

God Bless the God Emperor and shelter him from harm.; 4/27/18, 5:15 PM
The Godfather said...: If the North and South Koreans sign a treaty to end their war, and the NORKS agree to end their nuclear program (with inspections), and the SORKS start sending economic assistance to the NORKS, then awarding a Nobel Peace Prize to the leaders of both countries would be appropriate. Trump is a big man (with small hands, I understand, but a big man), and I'm sure he would not complain if he weren't included in the award. Instead, he would invite both leaders to the US for a celebration of the peace.

Unfortunately, while in the US, Kim would suffer a fatal "heart attack", like his late brother. It runs in the family.; 4/27/18, 5:21 PM
buwaya said...: "Fritz Haber won the 1918 Chemistry Nobel. The committee overlooked his role in developing Germany’s gas warfare program."

He deserved it, on the grounds of net balance of lives, of the greatest good for the greatest number, etc.; 4/27/18, 5:28 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: "Perhaps, but who cares? The Nobel Peace Prize is a party favor handed out by the globalist establishment. Utterly meaningless."

This, exactly and entirely. Unless you need the wonga, why would you care that a handful of Scandis with a sweet sinecure want to include you in their little sports banquet?

Ideology aside, they'd never award Trump the prize because they're terrified that he might scoff and refuse it. Trump is a formidable player of the male oneupmanship game. Accepting awards might make you feel warm and fuzzy but dismissively refusing them makes you a badass.; 4/27/18, 5:31 PM
buwaya said...: "They have systemically been trying to triangulate by moving closer to the South and hoping to force a wedge with the US. "

Alternating with open threats and direct violence.; 4/27/18, 5:36 PM
buwaya said...: Whats different this time - so far - is an air of humility on the part of the NK's.
Previous dealings with SK had the Great Leaders of the day as aloof, godlike persons, who would not deign to deal directly with the lackeys of the US. They had staff for that.

Here Kim meets Moon as an equal. That is a big change.; 4/27/18, 5:39 PM
langford peel said...: The sooner we bring home our hostages the better.

The North gives up their nukes and we can bring home our troops and don't have to pay for South Korea's defense? What could be sweeter?

Where do we sign?

America first.; 4/27/18, 5:39 PM
Drago said...: steve uhr: "We know that a Deal will be reached and it will be the best deal ever. of couse if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever."

We hope that a Deal will be reached and that it will be the best deal ever. of couse since Trump would be responsible it will be worst deal ever but had obama the Nobel prize winning "Lightbringer" and "sort of a god" reached the exact same deal it would be the most miraculous deal ever.

Go ahead Steve, admit it. You desperately want this effort to fail.

You should proceed from the LLR Chuck angle and just declare all credit belongs to others.; 4/27/18, 5:44 PM
bagoh20 said...: So if you are a ruthless, murdering tyrant that has been one of the main obstacles to peace, you can get the Nobel Peace Prize just for cooling that shit a little. Maybe Cosby should get a prize for feminism now. I mean, I'm sure he quit being an asshole and that has saved many women from being assaulted. Saddam Hussein should get a Peace prize posthumously. He stopped killing and raping big time.; 4/27/18, 5:46 PM
bagoh20 said...: "This is an extremely Americancentric view of the events."

I'm sure the Peninsula would have made peace by now without America, and without Trump, and all Koreans would be sharing in the anti-obesity success of the north.; 4/27/18, 5:49 PM
tcrosse said...: if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever.

But he didn't, did he ?; 4/27/18, 5:50 PM
bagoh20 said...: Nobody has done as much for peace as Stalin did in 1945. All for world peace, becuase he loved the world that much.; 4/27/18, 5:54 PM
langford peel said...: The God Emperor should set up his own award show. It would get top honors. We can call it the Trumpiee's.

First winner; Kanye.; 4/27/18, 5:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: "if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever."

He would have to include a planeloads of cash, and no disarmament, except by us.; 4/27/18, 5:59 PM
Achilles said...: I honestly do not understand how you think the relationship with China would significantly change.

If we abandoned South Korea why wouldn’t we abandon Japan? Then the Philippines.

Everyone would interpret us leaving South Korea as just the first step. They would immediately recalculate their entire strategy based on the US at some point abandoning them to China and China would expect the same and act accordingly.

China would also immediately push Korea out of the Yellow Sea.

Korea would be a vassal state within a decade and would close their markets to our products just like China does. There would be similar moves throughout Southeast Asia as everyone recalculated their relationships.; 4/27/18, 6:01 PM
buwaya said...: The larger point here is that NK has to give up the blackmailing way of life.
And also total autocratic control of their economy.

Both SK and the US would have given them a pile way back in 1991 if they had made peace and given up threatening the SK's.

But they couldn't do that, because in order to stay economically viable and militarily threatening they needed piles of $. They could have opened their economy Chinese-style to get the $, but this would have threatened the regime, depending as it does entirely on the control of privileges and goods. They could not have had people doing well independently.

So they went into the blackmail game, demanding tribute or protection money. The SK's gave them a great deal of protection money early on, which just created demands for more.

This is a long and messy story, but the outcome here requires two NK concessions, not just one.

- Peace, that is, no more threats
- An open economy.; 4/27/18, 6:02 PM
bagoh20 said...: I sincerely hope that Trump continues to accomplish great things once thought impossible just a short time ago. I hope he has great success, and the American people see it, and the Democrats impeach him anyway, which their rabid hatred would allow them blindly do. Given the choice between acknowledging Trump's success and impeaching him, there is no question which they would choose.; 4/27/18, 6:03 PM
Heartless Aztec said...: My Prediction (again)

After the North/South Korea war ending triumph the Trump Administration will go on to solve the Israel - Palestinian problem and the Nobel Peace Prize will be awarded to former President Obama for the second time.; 4/27/18, 6:05 PM
bagoh20 said...: "if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever."

Think about why he didn't with eight years to do it. Trump is just past his first. The men could not be more different, which is why Trump entered the White House rich and Obama wasn't rich till he got there. Trump may be the first president to lose wealth from his service at the job.; 4/27/18, 6:09 PM
Comanche Voter said...: So Little Rocket Man aka Whoa Fat may have become "woke" and smelled the kimchi as it were.
And if there is peace on the Korean Peninsula, and if the North Korean nukes are dismantled, well Whoa Fat may get the Nobel Peace Prize. That's true even though he has had a previous nasty habit of ordering the murder of his half brother, and the execution of his uncle and former mistress--I think the last two were literally cut to pieces by a quad .50 antiaircraft gun in front of an audience that he had organized.

So you weigh those crimes by Kim Jong Un against Trump's "crime" of causing the New York Times editors to clutch their pearls---and Kim Jong Un gets the Nobel Peace Prize--hands down.
That award will be as ridiculous as the Peace Prize given to Our New Light Worker (I always separate the "light" from "worker" because in truth and fact, Obama didn't work very hard).; 4/27/18, 6:10 PM
buwaya said...: "If we abandoned South Korea why wouldn’t we abandon Japan? Then the Philippines."

The Philippines is a rather different position.
It has no hope of developing a deterrent vs the Chinese. And its territory is already seriously being encroached on, unlike SK, where the Chinese threat is, so far, theoretical.

And the Philippines has no significant US military forces based there.
It can only hope for US intervention if the Chinese go any further than they have.
If the Chinese make new demands, the Philippine government will also have to consider whether US guarantees are any good.

If the US leaves SK, then they can reduce the probability that US guarantees will be effective.

On the scale of Chinese threat levels, I would rank them so -

Taiwan
Philippines/Vietnam (same threat level)
South Korea
Japan; 4/27/18, 6:12 PM
William said...: I don't see how they can award Kim the prize. His body count must be in the six figures. I don't think Arafat ever broke five figures, which is extremely low for that part of the world. Compared to Saddam and Assad, Arafat truly was a gentle soul. Perhaps, there's a way around this. They could give Kim the Nobel Prize for Literature. Kim doesn't have much of a following in the west, but the volumes of his collected speeches are eagerly read and studied in North Korea. Then they could give the Peace Award to Moon and again to Obama (for his preparatory work there). This way everybody would be happy and have something to celebrate.; 4/27/18, 6:16 PM
Olds69 said...: Saying this as a Norwegian, living in Norway and reading Norwegian newspapers:

There is no way in hell that the Norwegian Nobel committee will award the Teletubby fun prize to PDT.

The Trump hate runs extremely strong here.
The state run broadcast service have shows/series about the worst thing in the world is PDT, plastic pollution or global warming, in that order.

The committee is made up of old politicians from the left, the extreme left and the center of the political spectrum.

These are the politicians we could not pay the UN, WTO or any other global organization (read NATO) to take in as leader or ambassador...

Let me repeat my self:

No way in hell.

They will globally commit suicide before awarding the worst man in the world anything more than condemnation.; 4/27/18, 6:19 PM
rhhardin said...: Law Talk with Epstein and Yoo has apparently run out of things to have informed opinions about, now that the law no longer is about what keeps it from supporting deep state structures.; 4/27/18, 6:24 PM
Big Mike said...: They will globally commit suicide before awarding the worst man in the world anything more than condemnation.

I think surfed (6:05) is right, alas.; 4/27/18, 6:25 PM
langford peel said...: "If we abandoned South Korea why wouldn’t we abandon Japan? Then the Philippines."

That is a feature not a bug.

America first.

Let the chinks handle the Japs, gooks and slopes. God riddance.; 4/27/18, 6:31 PM
langford peel said...: We can stick to our hemisphere for our hegemony.

You get a hegemony...and you get a hegemony...and you get a hegemony.

Just remember you are responsible for them now.; 4/27/18, 6:35 PM
rcocean said...: "If we abandoned South Korea why wouldn’t we abandon Japan? Then the Philippines."

And then pretty soon, we'll be fighting them on the beaches of Santa Monica"

Assuming we can get the illegal aliens off it.; 4/27/18, 6:50 PM
rcocean said...: Wow, its amazing how bad the liberal Moby's are these days.

Up your game - lying leftists.; 4/27/18, 6:51 PM
rcocean said...: Hey look at me. I'm a drunk liberal. I'll pretend to be one of them there Trump supporters and talk about "gooks". yuck yuck.

'cause we globalists can't make actual persuasive arguments to support our position.

Left-wing freaks. Just win baby, just win.; 4/27/18, 6:53 PM
Gk1 said...: So many butt hurt postings from liberals on FB. They couldn't make it any clearer they prefer trump fails. I think healthy skepticism is in order on any NK promise but come on you can't pretend this isn't a good thing when you see two world leaders talk peace.; 4/27/18, 6:54 PM
buwaya said...: "You get a hegemony...and you get a hegemony...and you get a hegemony."

Hegemony don't work that way.; 4/27/18, 6:56 PM
Tommy Duncan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/27/18, 6:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Prof:

A week or so ago, I predicted it in this blog. That is, Trump and Kim get the peace prize. As everyone knows, I can see things.

I have also mentioned in this blog that 2020 Dems take over all - House, Senate, and WH.

This is why I am the top pol guy in the country. I really know politics as know one does.

Regards.; 4/27/18, 6:58 PM
langford peel said...: Hey rcocean get off your high horse.

Many of the God Emperors supporters have no truck with gooks, slopes or chinks. In fact they are just about the only ethnic group you can insult freely these days.

That is because they are discriminated against like they were white. Just ask Harvard.

In any event why do we need to pay for their defense. Forever.

Let them stand on their own two feet. We have no business over there anymore. Enough already.; 4/27/18, 7:04 PM
Achilles said...: langford peel said...

In any event why do we need to pay for their defense. Forever.

Let them stand on their own two feet. We have no business over there anymore. Enough already.

Because they wont.

Everyone will miss Pax Americana when it is gone.

Everyone.; 4/27/18, 7:13 PM
langford peel said...: As an aside we have some great news to share.

The so called conservative site Red State has come to its senses and purged the Never Trumper haters who formerly wrote for the them.

Caleb Howe. Pattrico and the Wicked Witch Susan Wright were purged. They spent all day every day attacking and ridiculing the God Emperor who destroyed ISIS, restore American Manufacturing Jobs, got conservative judges and made peace in Korea after all these years.

They were purged. Vomited out of their mouth. Just what the Republican party needs to do with those who are traitors and Quislings. The smarter rats like Flake and Ryan are already fleeing to sinecures in the womb of the lobbyist beast. A chill wind is blowing for all the rest.

We are coming for you.; 4/27/18, 7:16 PM
Birkel said...: If you guys call North Korea a shit hole, you will have hell to pay from long-time defender of Dick Durbin, LLR fopdoodle extraordinaire Chuck.; 4/27/18, 7:18 PM
Michael K said...: Blogger steve uhr said...
We know that a Deal will be reached and it will be the best deal ever. of couse if Obama had reached the exact same deal it would be the worst deal ever.

Come on, Steve. You know that Obama was not interested in Korea of that China stuff. Valerie had him focused on Iran like a laser.; 4/27/18, 7:55 PM
Michael K said...: As an aside we have some great news to share.

The so called conservative site Red State has come to its senses and purged the Never Trumper haters who formerly wrote for the them.

Caleb Howe. Pattrico and the Wicked Witch Susan Wright were purged. They spent all day every day attacking and ridiculing the God Emperor who destroyed ISIS, restore American Manufacturing Jobs, got conservative judges and made peace in Korea after all these years.

Interesting news, if true, Patterico has had a serious mental problem since November 2016.; 4/27/18, 7:56 PM
narciso said...: Well Susan Wright was often clueless, Caleb Howe was withering
On the wrong targets, now paterrico banned over a difference
Of a difference, he took as a personal slight, it's disappointing after everything he has endured, he doesn't realize who the reAL enemy is.

Re the main thread topic, I take Gordon Chang and Nicholas eberstadts reservation seriously re the hermit kingdom.; 4/27/18, 8:12 PM
Comanche Voter said...: Patterico has had a serious mental problem? Yer dern tootin'. I used to read him religiously--but cut him off my list long ago.

Now as for abandoning Japan and the Phillipines to their fate. If we want to say that we no longer care about the freedom of the seas in the Pacific---well heck yes Abandon them.; 4/27/18, 8:14 PM
narciso said...: Eberstadts grandfather was a partner with forrestal at Dillon read and subsequently a,consultant when he was at the pentagon.; 4/27/18, 8:20 PM
rcocean said...: I'm not clear of who exactly wants to invade the Philippines or Japan. But we have a $700 Billion dollar defense budget - and we'd better be defending someone. OR "someone" will be out of job.; 4/27/18, 8:21 PM
narciso said...: Actually he was a,co founder of the cia

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/opinion/north-korea-south-korea-peace.html; 4/27/18, 8:24 PM
exhelodrvr1 said...: Strong potential that this will negatively impact Iran's program, as NK shared with them quite a bit.; 4/27/18, 8:35 PM
langford peel said...: If you read Pompousio Pontifications he confirmed that he was bounced. Fired. Terminated.

Almost all of the rabid Never Trump propagandists were defenestrated.

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of cucks.; 4/27/18, 9:26 PM
narciso said...: Yes it's an interesting pattern of course Pakistan was aided by China, in their nuclear program and they helped the North Koreans along with the Libyan which were aided by certAin south African concerns like krisch.; 4/27/18, 9:35 PM
Michael K said...: Patterico has had a serious mental problem? Yer dern tootin'. I used to read him religiously--but cut him off my list long ago.

I know him personally and he has been really nasty accusing me of lying if I disagree with him. I think he has lost a bunch of readers and commenters and licked up some leftist trolls.

It's interesting that he is prosecutor in LA.; 4/27/18, 9:40 PM
Balfegor said...: Re: Achilles:

Everyone would interpret us leaving South Korea as just the first step. They would immediately recalculate their entire strategy based on the US at some point abandoning them to China and China would expect the same and act accordingly.

People are already doing that, albeit slowly. South Korea has been moving to develop a blue water navy. Japan has been building up their blue water navy. And Japan has been working to develop military relationships with smaller countries in China's periphery, including India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Australia. In parallel with the current administration's efforts to revise the Constitution to allow for mutual defense, they have been trying (with, um, somewhat limited success) to promote the Japanese arms industry to their neighbours, as a means of scaling up their capabilities.

Honestly, after seeing the reaction of the American public to the military fatalities from a couple punitive actions against tinpot dictatorships in the Middle East, I don't see how any of the countries in Asia could possibly feel certain the US would be willing to defend them in a real war, risking hundreds of thousands of dead soldiers, and a real threat to US civilians. I mean, I don't think our opponents can be certain we'd fold -- Japan thought that before, and they were wrong. But the confidence our allies assign to sustained US intervention on their behalf cannot possibly be 100%.; 4/27/18, 9:41 PM
Balfegor said...: Sorry, India is not a smaller country (haha). It has a smaller economy, but it is a much larger country.; 4/27/18, 9:44 PM
J. Farmer said...: @bagoh20:

I'm sure the Peninsula would have made peace by now without America, and without Trump, and all Koreans would be sharing in the anti-obesity success of the north.

No, they wouldn't. That is exactly my point. The issues at play run much deeper than just what is going on in Washington.

He would have to include a planeloads of cash, and no disarmament, except by us.

Disarmament by us? What are you smoking? But it's worth remembering that Iran has intrusive inspections and significant limitations on their mining and processing of fuel materials. They have exactly zero nuclear weapons. The North Koreans have several and have had nuclear weapons for over 10 years.; 4/27/18, 10:13 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Achilles:

If we abandoned South Korea why wouldn’t we abandon Japan? Then the Philippines.

Well, for starters because Japan and Philippines are different countries with different interest and of different strategic calculations than Korea. And again, your position would require the US to maintain any mutual defense pacts it ever enters into. SEATO dissolved in the late 1970s, and there was no cascade of any other US mutual defense pacts being abrogated.

China would also immediately push Korea out of the Yellow Sea.

How? What behavior would it engage in to make this happen?

Korea would be a vassal state within a decade and would close their markets to our products just like China does. There would be similar moves throughout Southeast Asia as everyone recalculated their relationships.

We have no mutual defense pact with Vietnam. Are Vietnamese markets closed to our products?; 4/27/18, 10:19 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Balfeagor:

Honestly, after seeing the reaction of the American public to the military fatalities from a couple punitive actions against tinpot dictatorships in the Middle East, I don't see how any of the countries in Asia could possibly feel certain the US would be willing to defend them in a real war, risking hundreds of thousands of dead soldiers, and a real threat to US civilians.

That's the point of nuclear deterrence. It has made direct wars between great powers very unlikely. None has occurred since their advent.; 4/27/18, 10:22 PM
buwaya said...: If the US abandons SK come pressure from China (wait for it) then absolutely no one would bother with the US. The Chinese sphere of influence would happen overnight. Shortly after you will have the Pax Sinica, and global trade and finance would go according to their rules.

They aren't going be as nice as the Americans were, but it can't be helped.; 4/27/18, 10:32 PM
narciso said...: You get somewHat of a notion was a planetary version would be in the alliance in whedon firefly.; 4/27/18, 11:10 PM
Comanche Voter said...: Patterico (Patrick Frey if I have his name right) is a prosecutor in Los Angeles. He's also a Texan by birth and maybe by training. He may have gone to law school at UT in Austin.

That said you never want to cross a Texan (my father and uncles and their parents and grandparents were all born in Texas). They can be stubborn and unyielding, and when they think they are right, God help the person who disagrees with them. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, but they are never uncertain.; 4/27/18, 11:18 PM
Paul said...: Give Trump the Nobel this time and go take Obama's Nobel and give it to Kim.

That would set things right.; 4/27/18, 11:20 PM
Paul said...: langford peel said...

"America first.

Let the chinks handle the Japs, gooks and slopes. God riddance."

Brilliant langford, just brilliant. And once we have ditched every ally we have (do you really think the Chinese won't go after Australia, New Zealand? What about South America langford? You gonna draw a line there?), ditched every forward base we have, who will help us in the next war? Oh, right, they will all be our enemies.

Yea that makes America first, sort of. First and last.; 4/27/18, 11:28 PM
J. Farmer said...: @buwaya:

If the US abandons SK come pressure from China (wait for it) then absolutely no one would bother with the US.

With all due respect, I regard that position as hysterical. First, withdrawing from a mutual defense pact is not abandoning South Korea. The US and the ROK could still collaborate on a number of issues and pursue a strategy of ambiguity. The exact parallel to that is Taiwan. US policy with regard to Taiwan is a bit of a muddle. We are not treaty bound to come to their defense, and we have no forces stationed there, and yet we can still act as a counterweight to Chinese influence in the region.

The Chinese sphere of influence would happen overnight. Shortly after you will have the Pax Sinica, and global trade and finance would go according to their rules.

First, the Chinese sphere of influence exists. Every great power as a sphere of influence. That's part of being a great power. And considering that the US defines it's sphere of influence as the entire world, other powers are not likely to respond kindly to being told they can't have a sphere of influence with countries that share their border. Imagine if the Chinese signed a mutual defense treaty with Mexico, stationed Chinese troops and military equipment in Mexico, and began integrating their armed forces with the Mexican armed forces. The US would rightly consider that a highly provocative act. And yet, when we do similar things to other countries all the time, and they respond, we label the response as evidence of their dangerous aggression and expansionist intent.

Second, there will not be a Pax Sinica, just as there never was a Pax Americana. The entire concept is illusory and based on gross misperceptions of American power in the past. Robert Kagan, one of the more serious thinkers of the neocon faction, has made this point himself in his book The World America Made.

They aren't going be as nice as the Americans were, but it can't be helped.

Again, instead of speaking in these broad general statements, explain how the Chinese will actually accomplish this. What exactly will the Chinese do to South Korea or the Philippines that they are not doing now? Plus, I think you vastly overstate China's power. It won't have a military force comparable to the United States' for decades. Even if the total size of China's economy exceeds that of the United States', it will not mean much. China has more than quadruple the population of the Untied States. America's GDP per capita is seven times that of China. The prospects of Chinese becoming a lingua franca are remote. There are vastly more Chinese learning English than there are Americans learning Mandarin. There are no large flows of American students into Chinese universities. Using the human development index, the US is ranked in the top 10. China is 90th. The notion that all of these advantages the US has in terms of raw power would be totally superseded by withdrawing from a Cold War era defense pact from the 1950s is nonsensical to me.; 4/28/18, 12:20 AM
Achilles said...: How? What behavior would it engage in to make this happen?

Come on man. You cannot be that dense.

What are they doing in the South China Sea right now at this very moment.

Seriously I am wondering if you are doing this in good faith.; 4/28/18, 12:24 AM
langford peel said...: What exactly does the gun grabbers in Australia and New Zealand have to offer us?

Other than lectures about how horrible the Unired States is and how they are so much better than us.

Why not let them group together with Japan and India and Vietnam and Korea to spend their own money to defend themselves. Hey I will even sell them the arms to do so. Win win. They are adults. The need to take care of themselves.

They are Chinamen not Supermen.

The logistics don't work. They can't take over the whole world. Sorry. That is a big bag of bullshit.; 4/28/18, 12:26 AM
Achilles said...: Well, for starters because Japan and Philippines are different countries with different interest and of different strategic calculations than Korea.

In a year you will make the same arguments until we pull out there too. Everyone else would expect us to pull out and the changes would be overnight.

And again, your position would require the US to maintain any mutual defense pacts it ever enters into. SEATO dissolved in the late 1970s, and there was no cascade of any other US mutual defense pacts being abrogated.

See. You already started.; 4/28/18, 12:30 AM
Achilles said...: langford peel said...

Why not let them group together with Japan and India and Vietnam and Korea to spend their own money to defend themselves.

My first question for you and farmer would be how do you think the world would be different if the Yuan was the world's reserve currency?

You can say all of the boilerplate stuff. You would not like it.; 4/28/18, 12:41 AM
langford peel said...: Is the worlds reserve currency based on who has the biggest Army? The one with the most clients and dependants? The one that foots the bill for the most deadbeat deadweight countries that leach off of us?

Serious question because I don't know anything about currency policy.

What you are basiclly saying is the economy means nothing. It all depends on who has the biggest dick.; 4/28/18, 12:51 AM
langford peel said...: Endless wars. Endless expense. Endless dependence. Endless alliances.

Endless.; 4/28/18, 12:54 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Achilles:

Come on man. You cannot be that dense.

Please don't pull the "it's so obvious I can't be bothered to explain it" routine. You're making a claim, I want you to back it up. What will China do to Japan or South Korea or the Philippines absent a US defense pact? Please explain.

In a year you will make the same arguments until we pull out there too. Everyone else would expect us to pull out and the changes would be overnight.

Well I admire your powers of clairvoyance, but I have said repeatedly that I believe the US should maintain defense pacts with the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

My first question for you and farmer would be how do you think the world would be different if the Yuan was the world's reserve currency?

Well, for starters there is no the world reserve currency. There are multiple reserve currencies, and the Yuan already is one, along with the dollar and the Euro. Which of your liberties have you lost or in threat of losing by this fact?; 4/28/18, 7:54 AM
Michael McNeil said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/28/18, 9:33 AM
Michael McNeil said...: The Norks, or a tungsten rod from heaven, collapsed the mountain they were using for nuclear testing. The mountain underwent a significant reduction in height and now sits open, probably leaking radiation.

Since folks may not have seen a posting of mine from (late during) an earlier thread, re all the talk about “Rods from God” or “… heaven,” so I’ll repeat it here.

E.g.:
The Space Force has kinetic Energy weapons that do the damage of nukes but with no nuclear explosive . They are Tungston Rods fired from a Satellite at precise targets that can convert their kinetic energy into total destruction of the underground targets. Imagine a Satellite with six of these Rods from God.

This is a myth — a myth promulgated by (probably) dozens of media pieces — I’ve lost count (here’s one)— but a myth nonetheless.

The fact is that a “Rod from God” would actually impact the earth with an energy yield that is far far short (less than 1/1,000th!) of (even smallish) nuclear weapons — such as the Hiroshima atomic bombing during World War II. Rather, a Rod-from-God is still well within the explosive yield of conventional bombs.

Check it out for yourself: A “Rod from God” (as described in the many media pieces which also assert that they’re “like nuclear weapons”) has these fundamental characteristics: a tungsten rod (standard density for W = 19.25 grams/cubic cm) — which is 6.1 m (20 ft.) long and 0.3 m (1 ft.) in diameter (thereby massing some 8,300 kg = 8.3 metric tons per) — which then, after falling (after being decelerated) out of (near-earth) orbit, would thereupon impact the surface of our world at a terminal velocity of (a proposed) 3.0 km/s (11,000 km/h) — or more than 6,800 miles per hour.

Applying the usual kinetic-energy formula from physics:

K = 1/2 Mv^2
= 1/2 (8.3 t) (3.0 km/s)^2
= 1/2 (8,300 kg) (3,000 m/s)^2
= 1/2 (8,300) (9,000,000) kg-m^2/s^2
= 3.735 • 10^10 joules (J) = 37.35 gigajoules (GJ)

If one thereafter peruses compilations such as Wikipedia’s “Orders of magnitude (energy)” list, you will discover that 37 gigajoules conveys very nearly the same energy (actually a little bit less) as one (1) “Massive Ordnance Air Blast” (MOAB; or “Mother of All Bombs”) conventional bomb (in U.S. conventional weapon inventories and whose individual yield is given as 5 • 10^10 J).

Also compare those 37 GJ resulting from one “Rod of God” impacting the earth with the yield of the Hiroshima atomic bomb — at some 15 kt of TNT explosive yield, the latter is equivalent to 6.3 • 10^13 J!

Which, one might note, is only about 1/30 of the yield of the larger nukes in modern nuclear powers’ inventories (the biggest Bombs yield some 1/2 megaton TNT). Hiroshima’s output, however (small for a nuclear weapon), was still some 1,700 times more energetic than what any single Rod from God could do.

Under the circumstances, probably simply launching a MOAB from an aircraft onto a target would generally be easier and perhaps cheaper than lugging 8 tons of expensive tungsten (per Rod-from-God) into orbit only to just drop it on somebody’s head.

(One might note that a SpaceX Falcon 9 launcher could only place two of these 8.3 ton “Rods” in orbit — at a cost of some $62 million — per launch.)

Maybe the (conventional!) energy of a MOAB or a “Rod” such as we’ve described it could have collapsed the North Korean’s deep-underground nuclear testing site (though it seems doubtful), but an on-site actual nuclear explosion — already positioned down at that great depth, and bearing an energy proportion to any conventional explosion of at least a thousand-fold as we’ve seen above — is far more likely to accomplish the deed. In other words: the North Koreans almost certainly did it to themselves.; 4/28/18, 9:40 AM
Bilwick said...: Well, if Red Diaper Barry can get the prize for doing nothing, why not?; 4/28/18, 5:55 PM
Rusty said...: "Well I admire your powers of clairvoyance, but I have said repeatedly that I believe the US should maintain defense pacts with the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. "

Nice to see you're finally coming around.
In which case it's going to take a lot more than six aircraft carriers.
Keep in mind while there is one air craft carrier group on station there is one in training and one in dry dock. A six carrier navy would be just the east and west coasts of the US.; 4/29/18, 6:45 AM
J. Farmer said...: @Rusty:

Nice to see you're finally coming around.

I'm not "coming around." That's been my position for years. We already have defense pacts with these countries. I am for abrogating all others, including NATO.; 4/29/18, 7:14 AM
Rusty said...: Sure J. Whatever you say.; 4/29/18, 11:50 AM
MikeR said...: "It is unclear why Coral has chosen to include the POTUS in its list" :); 4/29/18, 5:56 PM